Getting to Know Swing States: The States That Could Decide US Presidential Elections
Presidential elections in the United States always attract the attention of people around the world. Every four years, Americans go to the polls to elect their next president. However, not all states have the same voting patterns. Some states are predictable, while others remain unpredictable until the very end. These are the swing states, those that neither side has a guaranteed win and could be 50-50. Swing states, also known as battleground states, are very important in winning a presidential election. In this article, we will explore which states are swing states and what factors contribute to a state being a swing state.
Background and Overview of Swing States
A swing state is a state where both political parties have a chance of winning as their election results are unpredictable. In the United States, the presidential election is determined by a system known as the Electoral College. Each state is assigned a certain number of electors based on the size of its population. In most states, the candidate who wins the popular vote (the number of people who voted for that candidate) gets all of the state’s electoral votes.
There are 538 electoral votes up for grabs in a presidential election, and a candidate must win at least 270 electoral votes to win the presidency.
Swing states become decisive in presidential elections because each candidate has already secure enough votes in those states that tend to vote for their party patterns. Given both sides pretty much have their bases covered, having the majority in these swing states can lead them to eventually get the election win.
Examples of swing states in the United States are Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Florida, Arizona, Wisconsin, and North Carolina. These states have a history of voting for either Republicans or Democrats and moving back and forth between the parties in different presidential elections across time.
Analyzing the History of Various States
Swing states can change over time, and their voting patterns can have an impact on the outcome of a presidential election. For instance, battleground states such as Ohio and Florida have consistently been essential to the outcome of the presidential election results over the past few decades. Four years ago, President Trump won the 2016 election by receiving 306 Electoral College votes compared to Hillary Clinton’s 232, thanks in part to a winning in multiple swing states across the midwestern part of the country.
About 80% of states have consistently voted for one party over the last few decades. These states often are referred to as Democratic or Republican states. However, some states tend to be swing states, meaning they tend to lean one way or another but are not consistent in voting for the same party over time.
Factors contributing to a state being a swing state include a mix of demographic, economic, cultural, and social determinants. However, there are no clear-cut determinants that draw lines between a state being a swing state or an outright Republican or Democrat state. Swing states can often be identified by the voting patterns of their residents over time.
Perspectives of Residents of Different States
To better understand how residents of different states view the state’s politics regarding election, we conducted surveys amongst the residents of potential swing states. We interviewed residents of diverse backgrounds, professions, and ages of the following potential swing states.
North Carolina: In North Carolina, many residents see the state’s politics controlled by the people who live in large cities like Charlotte, Raleigh, and Durham. Many residents say that other parts of the state which are largely rural and Republican, tend to look to the cities’ urban areas when seeking to understand how presidential elections usually end in the state.
Ohio: Ohio residents we spoke to, stated that the state has consistently demonstrated that they have a say in who becomes the president. “Ohio has been deciding who is the president, and it amazes me. I always thought that my vote doesn’t matter but then I realized here in Ohio, my vote does count” says Jenna, a 29-year-old health administrator from Cincinnati, Ohio.
Florida: Florida has been a swing state in the past couple of presidential elections, and residents say that Florida is difficult to accurately predict. Some Floridians believe that the state’s diversity and the lack of unity among residents in the state has made it impossible to determine how the state will vote in the presidential election. “Florida is like a melting pot; Latinos, Cubans, Jamaicans, Jamaicans, and Haitians, Floridians are an interesting bunch- they keep everyone guessing” says Danielle, a 43-year-old childcare worker from Miami, Florida.
Demographics and Factors That Make A State More Likely to be a Swing State
The demographics of swing states have some similarities. For example, most of them have a relatively large number of voters without a college degree, allowing campaigns to directly appeal to working-class voters. Most swing states also have ethnically and racially diverse communities, which might convince presidential candidates from both parties to craft campaigns that acknowledge and respect the diversity of the demographics. Additionally, swing states tend to lie in regions that have many medium-sized urban areas and are not dominated by any large cities. This means campaigns have a chance to go to college towns, rural communities, and suburbs to directly reach out to voters.
The Impact of Third-Party Candidates
Third-party candidates can affect the outcome of an election in swing states. Even though third parties don’t usually receive many votes in an election, their votes be the decisive votes in swing states. Ross Perot, an independent candidate, won 19% of the vote in his 1992 campaign for president, a substantial percentage that affected the outcome of that election. Many speculate that Ralph Nader, the Green Party candidate in 2000, could have played the spoiler in the presidential election, taking enough votes away from Al Gore to cost him Florida, and thus the presidency.
Media and Advertising in Swing States
Media and advertising play a significant role in presidential elections, especially in swing states. Both candidates and their respective parties spend significantly higher sums of money on advertising in these states to influence voters’ decisions. Candidates’ presence on media also plays a significant role. For instance, events such as town halls, rallies, debates, and interviews provide candidates platforms to share their visions, policies and ideas.
Comparison of 2020 Swing States to Previous Elections
The potential swing states in the 2020 presidential election were Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Wisconsin. These states had disappeared from or appeared for the first time in the swing state category. As the results showed, Joe Biden, won most of the key swing states and eventually the presidency.
Democrat Joe Biden won in swing states Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, all of which were won by Republicans in the 2016 presidential election. Joe Biden had a 306-232 electoral college win over republican incumbent Donald Trump.
Conclusion
Swing states are essential in determining the outcome of a presidential election. The shift of states to and from swing state status often signals a seismic shift in the US political landscape, indicating the direction of politics to go in the years to come. Different factors, such as demographics, a history of voting patterns, media and advertising, and the impact of third-party candidates contribute to certain states being swing states. It is important for voters to understand the impact of swing states on a presidential election to understand the critical role their vote will play on election day.